Despite a strong delivery record, the council faced a worsening housing situation. So PRD was asked to support its Affordable Housing Commission, using street-level data to reveal the scale of the challenge. Find out what they learned.
Waltham Forest is a fascinating housing crisis case study.
It’s a London borough that has had one of the highest rates of development over the last decade, while also seeing the impact of the housing crisis hit hard. Rents are up, house prices are up, and demand for properties is off the scale.
In response, the council announced an innovative Affordable Housing Commission. The aim was to understand the economic and demographic drivers of the crisis in the borough and address growing concerns of established residents who felt priced out of the market.
It’s a tribute to the robustness of the project that a first-year review of the resulting housing strategy considered by councillors last month was deemed a success – despite key indicators of the housing crisis worsening in the borough, as across London.
Former MTVH CEO Geeta Nanda was appointed chair of the housing commission along with an array of housing stakeholders, including Rob Perrins, CEO of the Berkeley Group, and our own chief executive, Nicola Mathers.
Future of London member PRD was brought in to deliver data analysis and resident engagement that would inform the commission’s work. The assignment ultimately continued to support the development of the housing strategy, which was adopted in April 2024.
How public data helped to create fresh insights
Using publicly available data from the census and London Planning Datahub, PRD identified the neighbourhoods within the borough that had seen the highest housing development over the last ten years.
PRD created accessible briefings for each commission meeting that highlighted the long-term trends and drivers of change, with some stats that warranted the use of the term “housing crisis”.
House prices had more than doubled (118%) since 2011, and homelessness grew by 55% since 2019 – despite more than 9,000 new homes being built in the borough in the decade to 2022, of which about a third were affordable.
“Anecdotally, there was a well-established path from Hackney to Waltham Forest as a place with more affordable housing so people could move from a flat to a terraced house,” says Will Temple, Senior Associate Director at PRD.
“The granularity of the data meant we could pinpoint specific developments that substantiated those anecdotes through detailed migration patterns of people moving into Waltham Forest, including where they’d come from and their age profile.”
Addressing resident concerns about over-development
The council was aware that, despite the positive outcomes delivered via inclusive growth and employment opportunities, some residents in Waltham Forest perceived that over-development was creating rent and house price inflation in the borough, as well as pressure on public services.
“Our findings painted a picture of the pace of change and that was important to understand the experience of residents,” says Will. “It was also important from a demand perspective to show why people were moving to Waltham Forest creating a strong demand for family housing.”
Eoin Quiery, Head of Housing Strategy and Partnerships at the London Borough of Waltham Forest, worked closely with Will and PRD colleagues. He says the council recognised that the rationale for pushing for housing growth had not been successfully communicated, which the commission was set up to address.
“The focus groups showed that when a new block goes up even if its social housing the perception is it’s all private,” says Eoin. “That’s partly because the Housing Register is so big and the level of need at the top of the waiting list is so great.”
“So even though we know the borough benefits from housing delivery, the average resident doesn’t see the benefit and their perception is more demand on local services.”
Eoin recalls a resident saying that it was harder to get a doctor’s appointment after a new block was completed, when in fact the development paid for a new GP surgery! “We recognise that we need to do more to explain what those wider benefits are,” he adds.
Communicating the scale of the housing challenge
The commission’s final report helped the council communicate the housing challenges, putting them in the wider context of London and beyond, including the cost-of-living crisis and global financial uncertainty.
“The Council should continue to have honest conversations with residents about the factors which constrain its ability to act, and the compromises required to secure more affordable homes,” concluded the Affordable Housing Commission’s final report.
With PRD’s input, the council developed its new housing strategy using a “theory of change” approach to consider the wider housing-related impacts on health and well-being and communicate them to residents.
“You start with the outcomes you’re looking to achieve and work backwards to ultimately what you can control as an organisation,” says Will. “I think the council is now better able to talk about its role in addressing the housing crisis.”
Eoin agrees that the council’s mission-based approach is creating a stronger focus on the outcomes they want from their housing strategy.
“Everything we do as a council is about the health and well-being of residents,” he says. “The council’s overall mission is to reduce inequality and one the determinants of health and economic inequality is housing.”
PRD applies lessons learned in other London boroughs
PRD is rightly proud of its work with Waltham Forest, delivering a robust housing strategy that is being tested in the toughest of times. The consultancy is now working with Camden Council, which is considering setting up a similar commission. So what are the transferable lessons learned from Waltham Forest?
“Linking data and evidence on local demographics, resident prosperity and housing delivery, creates a deeper understanding of the types of housing that should be built and genuinely responds to local needs,” says Will.
“One of the impactful things in Waltham Forest we’re now doing with Camden is a genuine affordability assessment across different tenures. We’re showing the income needed to avoid falling below the poverty line across different tenures and borough areas.
“Understanding how local authorities can think very holistically about the role that housing plays in resident prosperity was one of the big learning curves from the housing commission.”
“There also needs to be wider capacity building piece to make sure people who are not housing policy experts can add something as valuable, if not more valuable, to the discussions.”
Listen to Will Temple and Eoin Quiery talking about the Affordable Housing Commission in this podcast on Spotify.